Curated on
October 3, 2023
Despite considerable growth in technology stocks primarily driven by the increased interest in Artificial Intelligence (AI), these aren't signs of a looming bubble. The view shared by Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, states the market is led by substantial firms that boast robust balance sheets and high returns on investment. Unlike the internet bubble of 2000, these companies command a lower valuation and are still in the relatively early stages of a new technology cycle predicting further growth.
The 15 companies influential in the AI industry, responsible for over 90% of S&P 500 Index returns, have generated questions about a potential bubble due to their market concentration. However, they showcase profitability and cash generation capacity, significantly higher than firms during the 2000 internet bubble. Their returns on equity and average margins are also nearly double, fortifying their position in terms of revenues and earnings. Lastly, the valuation of European dominant firms today pales compared to their counterparts during the late 1990s tech bubble.
Drawing a comparison between prior waves of technological innovation and investment bubbles, Oppenheimer has devised a PEARLs framework to organize businesses into five categories: Pioneers, Enablers, Adapters, Reformers, and Laggards. This distinction helps investors identify the potential winners and losers in the AI-driven market expansion. Despite several instances of inflated valuations following new tech innovation waves, current enthusiasm about AI does not display evidence of leading to a bubble.
